Loading...

Background Color Info

Background color changes dynamically based on average P(doom):
0% = Pure black
100% = Red

P(doom) for 2025

Expert Opinions

P(doom) predictions from renowned experts and scholars in the AI research field

Data source: pauseai.info/pdoom

Roman Yampolskiy

AI safety scientist

100.0%

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Founder of MIRI

95.0%@ESYudkowsky

Dan Hendrycks

Head of Center for AI Safety

80.0%@DanHendrycks

Daniel Kokotajlo

Forecaster & former OpenAI researcher

70.0%

Zvi Mowshowitz

Independent AI safety journalist

60.0%@TheZvi

Holden Karnofsky

Co-founder of Open Philanthropy

50.0%

Emad Mostaque

Founder of Stability AI

50.0%@EMostaque

Geoffrey Hinton

One of three godfathers of AI

50.0%
37.2%
Average
100.0%
Highest
<0.01%
Lowest
26
Total Experts

* These values are from public sources and interviews, and may not represent experts' current views.

What is P(doom)?

%
Login required to submit predictions. We use X/Twitter for authentication